This is Part 2 on a series focusing on the Florida State Senate and our efforts to take back the chamber. In Part 1 of the series, the current state of the Florida Senate was discussed, districts were put in categories based on Democratic strength, and our chances of picking up seats in those various categories was discussed.
Part 2 will focus on the “swing” or Category 4 districts for which elections will be held in 2008. These are districts where Gore took between 47-53% of the vote in 2000. There are four of these such districts that will have elections in 2008. They include the 7th, 11th, 13th, and 25th districts. At this time, it looks like Republican incumbents will be running for re-election in all of them, but this could change, particularly if Bill Young (US FL-10) were to retire from Congress. Two Republicans on this list could conceivably run for that seat.
Here is a State Senate Map for your viewing.
There are a couple things to keep in mind. It’s not necessarily true that these will be our best pickup opportunities in 2008. There is at least one race that I know of in Category 5 that surely will be a prime target for Democrats in 2008, probably moreso than at least a couple of these. Category 5 races and other possibilities will be discussed in Part 3.
Also keep in mind the Democratic performance is based on Gore’s results from 2000. The categories do not reflect on Nader’s vote, which could possibly add to our total. In many districts, demographics or voter trends have changed since 2000. In some cases like the 25th district, as I discuss below, the area has trended more Democratic. In other districts, like the 11th, the area may be trending more Republican, based on other recent elections.
Finally, one thing that all these Republican incumbents have in common is that they were first elected in 2002, a year that favored Republicans in the state and nationally. This was the year Jeb Bush went on to beat Democrat Bill McBride 56 – 43% in the Governor’s race. This likely gave lower-tier candidates a boost by several points. Unfortunately for us, many of these districts were open that year.
But now on to the future, which is looking very bright for Democrats. For a quick reminder, the Senate currently has 26 Republicans and 14 Democrats. We would need to pick up 6 seats for a tie and seven seats for a majority. We have until 2010 to take back the chamber before redistricting and many more seats will be open or contested in 2010, since senate elections are rotational, with half contested every two years.
25th district
Incumbent: Jeff Atwater 2000
Democratic Performance
Gore: 50%
Bush: 48%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures 2002 (Open)
Atwater (R): 55%, $748,000
Butterworth (D): 45%, $401,000
This is a district we can win and it has turned increasingly blue over the past few years. Al Gore actually won this district in the 2000 election and on top of that 2% went for Nader. It takes in the 22nd Congressional district, which was won by Democrat Ron Klein in 2006. In addition, the 22nd district actually went for Kerry stronger than it did for Gore, with both winning it. The district consists of eastern Palm Beach and Broward counties, including West Palm Beach, Boynton and Pompano Beaches, as well as the eastern stretches of Ft. Lauderdale and Oakland Park. Atwater won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election against the popular former Attorney General, Bob Butterworth. Atwater outspent Butterworth $748,000 to $400,000 in that election, a likely cause of our election loss, as well as the Republican-favored sentiment that year. If Atwater were to win re-election in 2008, he would likely become the Republican Majority Leader for the 2008-2010 session. In 2004, he faced no opponent in his second election to the Senate. Previously, he had won one term in the State House.
Robert Ostrov, an attorney, has already stepped up to challenge Atwater and former State Senator Skip Campbell and 2006 Democratic Attorney General nominee is considering a run. If Campbell were to run, he would offer a strong challenge with financial resources. In 2006, he actually won the district in his campaign for attorney general. He has also hinted that polls show that he could beat Atwater. Out of all the Category 4 seats, I would put this seat as our best pickup opportunity, especially if Campbell runs. Our major problem would be facing the Atwater fundraising machine. He’s already raised $564,000, of which $96,000 has been spent. Any Democratic candidate would need to be able to raise a good amount of money to compete. Campbell would likely be able to meet that challenge, so he definitely would be a good recruit. Our candidate would also likely have national Democratic sentiment and a strong candidate leading our ticket that would benefit them in this Democratic-leaning district in a year with no statewide races. I really think we can win this district and I would put it at “tossup” with a Campbell candidacy.
13th district
Incumbent: Dennis Jones
2000 Democratic Performance
Bush: 48%
Gore: 48%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Jones (R): 60%, $436,000
Kennedy (D): 40%, $53,000
The district consists completely of western Pinellas County and takes in parts of the 9th (Clearwater) and 10th (Seminole, Largo, and Dunedin) Congressional districts. Jones won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election and subsequently served as Majority Leader from 2002-2004. In his election win, he benefitted from the coattails of the state ticket and outspent the Democrat more than 8:1, so he has never been given a strong challenge for the seat. He has yet to face re-election in the Senate, though he won 11 terms in the State House. Jones has reported raising $153,000, of which $17,000 has been spent.
As of yet, no Democrat has entered the race. Jones has a long history in the district, so from that perspective challenging him could be difficult. However, there are many unknowns in this district. Despite being heavily outspent in 2002, Kennedy was still able to pull in 40%, so I would put that as our cellar support. If we financed a challenge against Jones, we could do much better than that and maybe even pull out a surprise, as Jones hasn’t faced an election since 2002 and doesn’t have the biggest fundraising numbers right now. It has also been widely rumored that Bill Young in the 10th district may retire and DCCC is poised to field a strong challenge to Gus Bilirakis in the 9th district. Democratic runs in those Congressional seats and national Democratic sentiment in 2008 could help a challenge in the state senate seat. This is a race we might want to start looking at.
7th district
Incumbent: Evelyn Lynn
2000 Democratic Performance
Bush: 51%
Gore: 47%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Lynn (R): 57%, $274,000
Ward (D): 43%, $226,000
The district consists of parts of Clay, Marion, Putnam, and Volusia Counties. It takes in pieces of the 3rd, 6th, 7th, and 24th Congressional districts. Lynn won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election battle in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. She had also served in the State House for four previous terms before running for the Senate. In the 2002 election, both parties spent about the same amount of money, but it's likely Lynn received a boost of a few points for statewide Republican sentiment. So far she’s amassed nearly $195,000 in fundraising this time, $13,000 of which has been spent. She raised around $136,000 of that money in the third quarter this year.
At the moment, there is no challenger in the district. The seat leans Republican for 2008, assuming Lynn runs. However, given the nature of the district, if a strong Democrat were to step up that could raise a large amount of money, then we could make this race competitive, especially since the presidential ticket will likely favor a Democrat, which could boost us up a couple points over that 2002 result. Some other factors that could favor us are a strong challenge to Feeney in the 24th district (New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater) by Suzanne Kosmas and strong spending and a big grassroots presence by Democrat Corrine Brown in the 3rd congressional district, which encompasses most of the state senate district. This is definitely somewhere where we should be able to compete and since Lynn hasn’t faced a challenge since 2002 this is a district we might want to challenge in 2008, when national sentiment should favor us.
11th district
Incumbent: Mike Fasano
2000 Democratic Performance
Bush: 49%
Gore: 49%
Past State Senate Elections and Expenditures
2002 (Open)
Fasano (R): 63%, $422,000
Cannon (D): 37%, $104,000
2004(I)
Fasano (R): 65%, $272,000
Mattingly (D): 36%, $4, 600
The bulk of the population resides in western Pasco and northern Pinellas counties, with some population in western Hernando and Citrus counties. The district is within the 5th, 9th, and 10th Congressional districts. Bush did win those districts by greater margins in 2004 than 2000, so it’s possible the area may be trending more for the Republicans. Fasano first won the seat in 2002 in an open seat election in a year that favored Republicans, statewide and nationally. In that election, Fasano outspent the Democratic candidate 4:1 and basically in 2004 the Democrat spent nothing. Fasano gained 2% on his performance in 2004, in another year that favored Republicans statewide and nationally. Before entering the Senate, he won four terms in the State House.
There are currently two Democratic challengers for 2008, Richard Skandera and Fred Taylor, a Vietnam veteran, who applied in December to run. Neither has reported raising any money yet, though Taylor just entered the race. Fasano has raised $183,000, $2,400 of which has been spent. I would put this seat as likely Republican, assuming Fasano runs. Like several of the others in this category though, we’ve never really given the Republican a real challenge and if 2008 favors Democrats, then we could have a chance if we field a strong challenger. Other factors that could help our nominee would be Bill Young retiring in the 10th congressional district, which consists of the population center of Palm Harbor. A strong performance in the 9th district against Republican Gus Bilirakis could also help us in this district.
The End
That's it for this edition. I think we should definitely compete in all of the above districts. In 2008, we are going to have a strong candidate, who I expect to win Florida, leading our national ticket and there will be no statewide elections. This by itself would give us an advantage over 2002, when Republicans were elected in open seats upon a Jeb Bush route in the Governor's race. Republicans will no longer have this luxury, so we should make sure we take advantage of it and give them the challenges of their lives. In 2006, now State Senator Charlie Justice won in one of these Category 4 "Swing" districts. It's clear sentiment and momentum are now favoring us and in 2008 we can win more of these seats. If anyone has anything to add or comments, that would be greatly appreciated.